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A Conservation Success Story That Sparked New Debates
The story of Florida’s black bears reads like a conservation fairy tale with a twist ending nobody saw coming. The black bear population has come back from just several hundred bears in the 1970s to over 4,000 today and is one of Florida’s most successful conservation efforts. In the 1970s, unregulated hunting and habitat loss were responsible for the near extinction of the Florida black bear. In 1974, Florida black bears were designated by the state of Florida as Threatened and placed on the state’s Endangered and Threatened Species List. But now that these magnificent creatures have bounced back, wildlife managers and conservationists find themselves asking an uncomfortable question: can you have too much of a good thing? The debate over whether four thousand bears is the perfect number or a problem waiting to happen has divided Florida like no other wildlife issue in recent memory.
The Numbers Game Behind Population Estimates
The latest research done by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) in 2017 showed an estimate of 4,050 bears throughout the state. There are just over 4,000 bears across the state, with more than 1,200 in Central Florida. However, some wildlife biologists believe these numbers might be conservative estimates that don’t tell the whole story. A count has not been done since 2016, at that time the population was estimated to be 4,350. If we assume a conservative growth rate of 10%, there would be more than 8,500 bears in Florida at the end of 2023. Assuming a 15% growth rate, there would be 11,500 bears in Florida at the end of 2023. These wildly different projections highlight just how challenging it is to count elusive forest dwellers who prefer to avoid human contact at all costs.
Historical Context: From Abundance to Near Extinction
Prior to the rapid urban development at the expense of Florida’s natural ecosystems, Black Bears were ubiquitous across the landscape, with some estimates as high as 11,000 bears in Florida. Before European settlement, Florida had an estimated black bear population of 11,000 and an estimated human population of 350,000. Today, at least 4,000 Florida black bears share the state with over 20 million people. The dramatic flip in these ratios tells a story of profound ecological change that unfolded over centuries. Before settlement by the early Europeans, Florida black bears occupied all of the Florida mainland, including some coastal islands and larger keys · By the mid 1970’s, bear range decreased to 18% of its historic range, with bear populations remaining in several core areas of large public lands. Think of it like a massive game of musical chairs where the music never stopped, but chairs kept disappearing until only a few remained.
The Expanding Range Phenomenon
A study published by Scheick et al in (Scheick et al., 2023) compared various types of bear presence data between historic (2001-2010) and contemporary (2011-2020) periods to show that the range occupied by bears has increased between 6% and 26% in each of the 7 BMUs. Established ecological theory dictates that abundance and range expansion are consistently positively correlated, suggesting that the population has also grown through this time. Bear range in the state has expanded over the last 20 years. This expansion isn’t just about bears finding new homes – it’s about a species literally reclaiming lost territory. They have estimated annual population growth rates for each of the BMUs and have shown these rates to be positive for the past 10 years. When wildlife biologists see range expansion coupled with positive growth rates, it typically signals a healthy, recovering population that’s testing the boundaries of its old habitat.
The Human-Bear Collision Crisis
The Central Bear Management Unit (BMU) has the highest mortality levels of all the BMUs, with an average of 209 bears killed each year (84% vehicle related). The number of bears killed on Florida’s roads has remained above 200 bears each year since 2012. Vehicles killed a total of 231 black bears in 2016. With the total population of black bears in the state at about 4,000, that means that in the year 2016, 5.7 percent of the total black bear population was killed on Florida roads and highways. Picture this: nearly six percent of an entire species getting wiped out annually by something as mundane as rush hour traffic. As their habitats shrink, bears are pushed into smaller, disconnected areas, making it harder to find food, mates, and safe spaces to roam while also increasing their risk of vehicle collisions – one of the leading causes of bear mortality. In fact, today, roads are considered the leading direct cause of Florida black bear mortality.
Rising Human-Bear Conflicts Across the State
State-wide bear-related calls are at an all time high, with a 42% increase from 2016, These calls include both positive (bear sightings) and negative (complaints), the proportion of which has remained relatively consistent through the years (average 40% of calls are complaints). The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission receives an average of 6,300 bear-related calls annually and has documented 42 prior incidents where wild black bears have made physical contact with people since the 1970s, when comprehensive records began being kept. The stark reality is that more bears plus more people equals more opportunities for conflict. With over 6,000 Black Bear related calls to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation each year, a bear hunt may be on the agenda for approval next year which would be the first in almost a decade. These aren’t just abstract statistics – each call represents a moment when someone’s backyard barbecue, garbage day, or evening dog walk intersected with a bear’s search for food.
Habitat Fragmentation: The Invisible Threat
Conservation efforts over the last several decades have helped the black bear populations recover, however habitat loss and fragmentation caused by rapid urbanization remains a challenge. As their habitats shrink, bears are pushed into smaller, disconnected areas, making it harder to find food, mates, and safe spaces to roam while also increasing their risk of vehicle collisions – one of the leading causes of bear mortality. Florida black bear populations are confined to just eight isolated habitats. The bears face serious challenges in our state, mostly because of us. Encroaching development like residential communities and roadways has reduced and fragmented bear territory. Fragmented habitats can also limit how young bears, typically young males, disperse to new areas. Dispersal events are important for maintaining and improving genetic connectivity between bear subpopulations. It’s like trying to maintain a social network when all the roads between towns keep getting blocked – eventually, communities become isolated and problems compound.
The 2025 Hunt Controversy: Science Versus Politics
After FWC staff presented options on highly regulated black bear hunting and the public provided their comments at the August 2025 Commission meeting, FWC Commissioners approved final proposed amendments to bear hunting rules, which will go into effect on September 1, 2025. The staff concluded that “no action was needed at this time” regarding bear management. Following the FWC’s bear management update, FWC Commissioner Gary Lester stated, “I’ll be very succinct,” and added, “I would like to see a proposal from staff for a bear hunt.” The hunt is intended to target male bears – most female bears should be in their dens by December – and the commission says the 187 permits available for the proposed 2025 hunt is equal to the number of female bears that could be removed without reducing the population of the individual Bear Management Units. The decision has split wildlife professionals, with some arguing that hunting could provide valuable population management tools while others contend that the bears haven’t reached problem levels yet.
Historic Precedent: The 2015 Hunt Debacle
The 2015 hunt killed 304 bears before it was called off, just two days into the week-long season. In 2015, a bear hunt in Florida sparked widespread public outcry and raised concerns about the effectiveness of management practices. FWF helped gather expert inputand submitted key findings and recommendations to FWC, should a future hunt be considered. The priority concern was the lack of current population data to indicate the maximum sustainable harvest rate. A bear hunt has not occurred since 2015, after anti-conservation groups sued the state over the hunt and got it shut down. The 2015 hunt became a cautionary tale about what happens when public sentiment clashes with wildlife management objectives. Hunters exceeded quotas so quickly that officials had to shut down the hunt early, creating a public relations nightmare that haunted future management decisions.
Population Density and Carrying Capacity Questions
The Bear Management Plan has minimum population objectives for each of the 7 bear subpopulations, but did not set a maximum number. Black bear populations at high numbers or densities do not negatively impact their habitat like can occur with white-tailed deer. Instead, as black bear numbers reach high enough levels, they begin to spread out from suitable habitats to more marginal habitats, where they are more impacted by humans, primarily through increased vehicle-bear mortality and human-bear conflicts. While all wildlife species, theoretically, will reach some population level that triggers a decline, black bear populations have not reached levels where self-regulation has been exhibited anywhere in North America. Florida currently has more than 17,000 square miles of suitable bear habitat, 46% of which is protected. Unlike deer that can overpopulate and damage their environment, bears seem to self-distribute as their numbers grow, but this often pushes them into dangerous territory where humans dominate the landscape.
Economic Considerations: Conservation Funding Through Hunting
During the 2015 hunt, $376,000 was generated, and it is expected that a similar amount of funding can be generated year after year that can be allocated toward conservation efforts that benefit the bear population. Furthermore, in 2023, hunting license and tag sales as well as federal contributions through the Pitman-Robertson fund contributed $29 million to FWC’s budget, making up 28.5% of the total budget for the year. We anticipate funds generated from application and permit sales will go into the State Game Trust Fund and will be used for wildlife conservation. The financial argument for hunting presents an interesting paradox: killing some bears to fund the conservation of all bears. The 2015 bear hunt generated close to $400k in revenue, which was reallocated to conservation efforts in the state. Establishing an annual hunt can generate similar funding on a yearly basis to be allocated toward habitat restoration and land acquisitions to improve connectivity between bear subpopulations.
The First Fatal Attack: A Game-Changing Event
Officials in Florida confirmed that a man and his dog found dead earlier this month were killed by a bear, a first for the state. While it is rare for wild black bears in Florida to injure people, people have been bitten and scratched by bears, most often when there are cubs, food sources or dogs present. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission receives an average of 6,300 bear-related calls annually and has documented 42 prior incidents where wild black bears have made physical contact with people since the 1970s, when comprehensive records began being kept. This tragic milestone represents more than just a statistic – it fundamentally changed the conversation about bear management in Florida. What was once theoretical risk became heartbreaking reality, adding urgency to debates about whether current bear populations pose acceptable levels of risk to human safety.
Future Projections and Climate Change Impacts
Florida’s population is expected to have 15 million more people by 2070, while sea level rise is expected to eat away at the state’s coastlines. In the worst case scenario with urban sprawl and a sea level rise of 1.8 meters, the researchers determined that the panthers’ protected habitat will shrink in southern Florida by 3.4%. During the 10 years since Florida’s last bear hunt in 2015, the state’s black bear population has grown modestly. Meanwhile, Florida’s human population has been booming, with 3 million more people living in the state since the last hunt. Urban development and sea level rise will lead to increasing habitat fragmentation for panthers and bears in in coming decades – unless efforts are made to set aside key movement corridors for the species. The collision course between human expansion and bear recovery is only accelerating, with climate change adding another layer of complexity to an already challenging situation.
Legal Changes: The “Taking of Bears” Bill
In 2024, the passing of Florida House Bill 87, also known as the “Taking of Bears” bill, allowed for lethal removal of bears if they are perceived as a threat to pets, property, or human safety, regardless of the underlying causes of these conflicts. FWF strongly opposed this bill, warning that it undermines science-based wildlife management and opens the door to indiscriminate killings of bears without addressing the root causes of these conflicts. In June 2024, Governor Ron DeSantis signed HB 87, also known as the “Taking of Bears” or the “Self-Defense Act,” into law. This legislation significantly broadens the legal justification for killing black bears under the guise of self-defense. Under HB 87, individuals may kill a bear simply by claiming they felt threatened or that their property was at risk, effectively eliminating the FWC’s authority to investigate whether the bear posed an actual threat. This legislative change represents a significant shift from science-based management toward individual decision-making about bear conflicts.
Conservation Success or Management Challenge?
In 2012, the Florida black bear was officially classified as a “Recovered” species after decades of concerted efforts aimed at habitat restoration, reducing human-wildlife conflicts, and raising public awareness. As a result, the population of Florida black bears has grown to an estimated 4,000 individuals in the wild. Despite this success, the species remains protected under state law, and ongoing monitoring is essential to ensure its long-term survival. It is very close to the number of bears thought to exist in pre-Columbian Florida. The question isn’t whether bear recovery represents a conservation triumph – it absolutely does. The real question is what comes next when success creates new challenges that nobody anticipated during the darkest days of near-extinction.
Conclusion: Finding Balance in an Unbalanced World
So, are four thousand black bears too few or too many for Florida? The answer depends entirely on your perspective and priorities. From a conservation standpoint, it’s a remarkable recovery that proves dedicated management can bring species back from the brink. From a public safety perspective, it represents a growing challenge that demands innovative solutions. From an ecological standpoint, it’s still probably fewer bears than the landscape could historically support, but in a radically altered environment where human infrastructure dominates. The real challenge isn’t determining the perfect number of bears – it’s creating a future where bears and people can coexist as Florida continues to grow and change. Whether that future includes regulated hunting, expanded habitat corridors, better waste management, or some combination of strategies remains to be seen.
What seems certain is that doing nothing isn’t an option when you’re dealing with a recovering apex species in one of America’s fastest-growing states. Did you expect that a conservation success story would create such complex management dilemmas?
