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Cities Are Experiencing Nearly 40% More Warming Than Rural Areas
When you step out of an air-conditioned building in Mumbai or Delhi during summer, the concrete radiates heat like a giant oven. This isn’t just perception—it’s measurable reality. Indian cities are warming at nearly twice the rate of the rest of the country, according to a study published in Nature journal in May 2024, with an average increase of 0.53°C per decade. Of this, 0.2°C is directly attributed to urbanization—meaning cities are experiencing 37.73% more warming than nearby rural regions. A separate study revealed that urbanization alone has led to an overall 60% enhancement in warming in Indian cities, with eastern Tier-II cities leading the way.
This isn’t just about uncomfortable afternoons. According to Vinoj Velu, associate professor of earth, ocean, and climate sciences at Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, who co-authored the recent study, “Warming in a city happens due to both climate change and urbanization.” The research team analyzed satellite data from 141 Indian cities between 2003-2020 to isolate the urban warming effect from broader climate change impacts.
2024 Became India’s Deadliest Heat Year in Recent Memory
In 2024, for instance, heat waves in India resulted in over 450 deaths. However, the actual toll was much higher. A new report revealed the devastating impact of heatwaves in India this summer, with hundreds of deaths attributed to extreme temperatures. Between March and June 2024, India experienced record-breaking temperatures, with 37 cities surpassing 45 degrees Celsius. The report, titled “Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2024,” was released by the non-profit HeatWatch.
It highlighted significant discrepancies between official government death counts and those identified through media reports. The discrepancy was attributed to factors such as inadequate data collection methods, lack of awareness among healthcare professionals and insufficient implementation of government guidelines. Data from the India Meteorological Department confirmed the severity of India’s heatwave, noting a concerning trend of faster increases in nighttime temperatures compared to daytime temperatures. Nighttime temperatures, or daily minimums, reached extraordinary levels across the country this year, surpassing historical records in multiple locations. In Alwar, Rajasthan, the temperature on the night of June 18 soared to 37°C, the highest minimum recorded in 55 years.
Urban Population Explosion Creates Perfect Storm for Heat Islands
The numbers tell a staggering story of urban expansion. In 1991, India had only 18 cities with a population of a million or more, according to the census. In 2011, there were 52 cities. Another report by the State Bank of India last year predicted it would likely be around 75-80 cities by the end of 2024. At the same time, the urban population is growing at an annual rate of over 2%. Currently, 37.08% of the population is urban (542,742,539 people in 2025).
This massive urban growth directly fuels the heat island effect. Tall buildings, expanding road networks, diminishing green spaces, and dense human activity have altered how heat is absorbed, retained, and released. This change has given rise to a phenomenon known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI). It is an increasingly urgent issue as cities experience record-breaking temperatures amid global climate change. Cities, built largely with heat-absorbing materials such as asphalt, concrete, and metal, trap solar radiation throughout the day. As evening sets in, this stored heat is slowly released, making urban environments significantly warmer, especially during the night.
Delhi Records Its Highest Ever Temperature at 47.3°C
The capital city has become a furnace. New Delhi recorded a scorching 47.3°C on May 27, 2024 — one of the highest ever temperatures in the city’s history. More alarming is the city’s average daily temperature of 39.9°C, which reflects sustained high temperatures rather than a few isolated heat spikes. The climate severity index, based on combined heat factors and worsening trends, placed Delhi at 57, the highest among all major cities analyzed.
The need for air conditioners is only increasing in Delhi, a metro area of about 33 million people, because of the “urban heat island” effect. Dominated by concrete, brick, steel, and asphalt, the city has minimal tree cover, effectively soaking up and retaining heat. The reduction in green areas and changes in land use combined with the proliferation of air conditioners that expel hot air into congested and poorly ventilated spaces are causing temperatures to surge up to 6°C higher than the city’s average. In the midst of scorching heat, Delhi faced unprecedented rainfall in May 2025.
Mumbai Witnesses 67,600% Above Average Rainfall in Three Days
Perhaps the most shocking example of how urbanization affects rainfall patterns came from Mumbai. Between May 25 and May 27 this year, Mumbai’s recorded rainfall was 67,600% above average for that time of year, shattering a century-old record from 1918. This wasn’t just a statistical anomaly—it had deadly consequences. When 28-year-old Sonelal Prasad left home on the morning of June 16 for his job at a construction site in Mumbai, he didn’t know he’d be digging his own grave. As he worked in the foundation pit of an upcoming high-rise, an intense downpour triggered a soil collapse, burying him alive beneath the rain-soaked earth. Prasad’s death was the result of a dangerous convergence as densely-packed concrete cities expand and new ones mushroom over wetlands, floodplains, and forests across India: climate change and haphazard urban development.
In India, this intensifying city heat is making the monsoon season, and its short-duration, high-intensity rainstorms, more extreme. Mumbai’s coastal location provides some buffering against extreme highs, but humidity levels are exceptionally high. The UHI effect in Mumbai manifests more through uncomfortable and persistent heat, particularly at night. This is exacerbated by the city’s vertical growth, congested neighbourhoods, and declining mangrove ecosystems.
Asia Warms Twice as Fast as Global Average
The regional context makes India’s urbanization challenge even more daunting. According to the World Meteorological Organization’s latest report, State of the Climate in Asia 2024, Asia is warming nearly twice as fast as the global average across land and ocean surfaces. The WMO’s analysis found that the warming trend from 1991 to 2024 was nearly double that of the 1961–1990 period, especially over land compared to oceans.
This accelerated warming combines with urban growth to create a dangerous feedback loop. India’s energy-related CO2 emissions rose by 5.3% in 2024, the highest rate among major economies, driven by rapid economic growth, infrastructure development, and surging energy demand. As cities have more people and higher energy needs, their contribution to emissions, and therefore climate change, is greater. The heat forces more air conditioning use, which creates more emissions, which creates more heat—an escalating cycle.
Indian Monsoon 2024 Breaks Five-Year Record for Extreme Rainfall
The monsoon’s behavior has become increasingly erratic alongside urbanization. The IMD report revealed that during the 2024 Southwest Monsoon (June-September), India received 108% of its long period average (LPA), marking an above-normal monsoon. Rainfall in different regions varied: Northwest India (107%), Central India (119%), South Peninsula (114%), and Northeast India (86%).
India witnessed a significant increase in the number of very-heavy and extremely-heavy rainfall events, the highest in the last five years, during the 2024 monsoon season. A report published by the India Meteorological Department revealed that there were 2,632 instances of very-heavy rainfall and 473 instances of extremely-heavy rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season. Very-heavy rainfall refers to rain exceeding 115.6 mm in a 24-hour period, while extremely-heavy rainfall is more than 204.4 mm in the same time frame.
Tier-II Cities Face the Greatest Urban Warming Challenge
While major metros grab headlines, smaller cities are experiencing the most dramatic temperature increases. Urbanization alone has led to an overall 60% enhancement in warming in Indian cities, with eastern Tier-II cities leading the way. According to the IIT findings, Ahmedabad, Jaipur and Rajkot have the biggest urban effects on warming temperatures, while the Delhi national capital region and Pune were ranked fourth and fifth, respectively.
Pune provides a telling example of rapid urban transformation. Once known for its mild climate, Pune’s 2024 temperature data tells a different story. The city saw a high of 40.7°C in late April, and its climate severity index rose to 52, with a troubling +4.1% increase from 2010 to 2024. This data paints a picture of a city slipping into dangerous territory. As Pune’s IT sector expands and real estate booms, green spaces are being rapidly converted into commercial and residential blocks.
Climate Change Amplifies Urban Heat’s Deadly Impact
The human toll of urban heat goes far beyond discomfort. With over 24,000 deaths attributed to heatwaves from 1992 to 2015, there is an urgent need to understand India’s vulnerabilities and prepare adaptive strategies under various emission scenarios. This situation is predicted to worsen as heatwaves become more frequent, intense, and long-lasting.
The majority of the victims of the increased number and intensity of heat waves come from the working class, particularly its most impoverished layers who migrate to cities to find jobs and struggle to survive in poverty. Three-quarters of India’s workforce work in heat-exposed industries, such as construction, mining and agriculture. According to a Lancet study, severe heat in India cost the country 167.2 billion potential labour hours in 2021. This represents a massive economic cost beyond the tragic loss of human life.
India’s Urban Future Hangs in the Balance
The convergence of rapid urbanization and climate change has created an unprecedented challenge for India’s cities. As of December 2024, around 41 cities have developed or are drafting City Climate Action Plans, as per a government statement. However, implementation remains patchy. One key finding is that only eight cities have established institutional structures for implementing and monitoring their CCAPs. Based on these findings, the paper published in January recommends developing a national framework to standardise the essential CCAP components.
As temperatures continue to rise, the urgency for action cannot be overstated. Urban India stands at a tipping point. What it chooses to do in the next few years will define whether its cities become resilient centres of life or ovens of inescapable heat. Climate change is warming the atmosphere, increasing its moisture-holding capacity, which means increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events. Such erratic behaviour is not just a weather anomaly — it carries serious implications for agriculture, water security, and the broader economy. The clock is ticking, and India’s urban future depends on decisive action taken today.
