- When Weather Events Are Confused With Climate Trends - September 8, 2025
- How Forecasting Builds on Both Weather and Climate Research - September 3, 2025
- Recycling Aluminum and Steel to Conserve Energy and Resources - September 2, 2025
Heat Waves Don’t Prove Everything
One scorching summer day doesn’t make global warming real, just like one chilly winter morning doesn’t debunk it. Yet this confusion happens all the time, and it’s creating a massive communication problem in our understanding of climate science. There is still a lot of confusion over the difference between weather and climate, though climate is what you expect while weather is what you get.
The concepts of climate and weather are often confused, so it may be helpful to think about the difference between weather and climate with an analogy: weather influences what clothes you wear on a given day, while the climate where you live influences the entire wardrobe you buy. Think of it this way – you might wear a coat on an unexpectedly cold day in July, but you still don’t pack winter clothes for a summer vacation.
The Time Scale That Changes Everything
Weather refers to short-term changes in the atmosphere, while climate describes what the weather is like over a long period of time in a specific area. When scientists talk about climate, they’re often looking at averages of precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind, and other measures of weather that occur over a long period in a particular place.
Climate scientists typically analyze weather data over periods of at least 30 years to establish climate normals or averages. The World Meteorological Organization standard is to use 30-year periods for calculating climate normals, currently using 1991-2020 as the reference period. This isn’t just scientific perfectionism – it’s the only way to filter out the natural ups and downs that happen from day to day, month to month, even year to year.
When Single Events Become False Proof
We seem to be experiencing record-breaking cold winters; in January 2019, a polar vortex plunged parts of North America into Arctic conditions. It may seem counterintuitive but cold weather events like these do not disprove global warming, because weather and climate are two different things.
People often grab onto individual weather events as evidence for or against climate change, but this creates misleading conclusions. A common misconception arises when people confuse unusual weather events with broader climate trends. For example, a single cold winter day doesn’t disprove global warming, just as a record-breaking heatwave doesn’t prove it on its own. Climate change refers to long-term shifts in average conditions, not isolated weather anomalies. It’s like judging a baseball player’s entire career based on one at-bat.
Why 2024 Broke the Records
2024 is set to be the warmest on record, capping a decade of unprecedented heat fueled by human activities. This is the warmest year in the 175-year observational record. But here’s where things get tricky – individual hot days throughout 2024 weren’t necessarily caused by climate change, even though the overall warming trend absolutely is.
2024 was likely the first calendar year to be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, with a global mean near-surface temperature of 1.55 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average. This is the warmest year in the 175-year observational record. The distinction matters because understanding climate trends requires looking at patterns over decades, not getting distracted by individual weather events.
The Billion Dollar Confusion
There were 24 disasters in the United States in 2024 that individually cost $1 billion or more. It was the second-highest number since the NOAA record began in 1980. These disasters included everything from hurricanes to winter storms, and each one sparked debates about whether climate change was to blame.
Climate change was a significant contributor to nearly all of the 26 extreme weather events evaluated in 2024; collectively at least 3,700 people were killed and millions more were displaced by these events. From the Himalayas to the Southern Appalachians, the past year witnessed a global surge in devastating floods. WWA analyzed 16 of these flood events and found that all but one were significantly intensified by climate change-amplified rainfall. But again, no single flood proves climate change exists.
Winter Weather That Seems Contradictory
In January, an unusual cold snap brought extremely cold temperatures to much of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It was the coldest January in much of North America in at least 10 years, bringing temperatures as much as 20–35 °F below average to a majority of the United States. The lowest temperature was −36 °C (−33 °F) in parts of Saskatchewan, Canada.
These extreme cold events actually don’t contradict global warming – they can be part of it. While it may seem contradictory, climate change may be contributing to more extreme winter weather. Another factor is the rapidly warming Arctic, which some scientists believe is weakening the jet stream and causing disruptions of the polar vortex. The polar vortex refers to bands of wind and low air pressure near the North Pole, which normally lock cold air over Arctic. When those bands break down, icy air can escape south in the form of freezing winters.
Heat Records That Tell a Different Story
Heat waves are occurring more than they used to in major cities across the United States. Heat waves are occurring three times more often than they did in the 1960s – about six per year compared with two per year. This is where the difference between weather and climate becomes crystal clear – individual heat waves are weather, but the increasing frequency is climate.
Climate change intensified 26 of the 29 weather events studied by World Weather Attribution that killed at least 3700 people and displaced millions. The report said that climate change added 41 days of dangerous heat in 2024, harming human health and ecosystems. Each of those 41 extra days was a weather event, but the pattern represents climate change in action.
Drought and Flood Patterns People Misread
The 1930s and 1950s saw the most widespread droughts, while the last 50 years have generally been wetter than average. Specific trends vary by region, as the West has generally experienced more drought while the Midwest and Northeast have become wetter. People often point to individual dry spells or wet periods as proof of climate change, missing the bigger regional patterns.
Nearly all of Florida experienced the worst drought conditions in 24 years, where 84 percent of the state was affected by drought conditions, with a severe rain deficit of 6–10 inches since mid-October 2024. At the height of the drought, nearly 99 percent of the state was affected with some form of drought conditions. The Everglades saw its worst drought since 2012, causing airboat rides to shut down due to the lack of water. This single drought event doesn’t define Florida’s climate, but it fits into larger precipitation trends scientists are tracking.
Wildfire Seasons That Spark Debates
The Southern California wildfires caused 28 deaths, with the Eaton Fire burning 14,021 acres, while the Palisades Fire burned 23,448 acres, with the Eaton Fire being the second most destructive and the Palisades Fire being the third most destructive wildfires in California history, respectively. Every major wildfire triggers arguments about whether climate change caused it, but that’s not the right question to ask.
Wildfires have always been a natural part of life in the western United States and Canada. However, as this region grows hotter and drier, wildfires are growing in size, ferocity, and speed. Individual fires are weather-driven events that happen because of specific conditions on specific days. But the trend toward larger, more destructive fires reflects long-term climate changes.
Attribution Science Shows the Real Connection
Attribution science is the study of to what degree human influence may have contributed to the frequency, intensity, and likelihood of extreme climate or weather events. By using advanced climate models and statistical analyses, researchers compare observed weather patterns with those generated by models that simulate a world without climate change. This comparison allows scientists to assess the extent to which climate change has altered the frequency or intensity of extreme climate and weather events.
More than 600 studies cover almost 750 extreme weather events and trends. Across all these cases, 74% were made more likely or severe because of climate change. This includes multiple cases where scientists found that an extreme was virtually impossible without human influence on global temperatures. This research helps separate individual weather events from climate trends, but the distinction often gets lost in public discussions.
The Communication Problem That Matters
Clear communication about the difference between weather and climate is important for building public understanding of environmental issues. If people view climate change as merely a series of extreme weather events, they may struggle to grasp its long-term impacts or the need for sustained action. By focusing on long-term patterns, we can build a stronger case for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to future changes.
Two-thirds of Americans (66%) believe that global warming is affecting weather in the United States. Weather is changing due to climate change, so this observation that many are recalling from their personal experience does align with the science. The challenge is helping people understand that while climate change influences weather patterns, individual weather events can’t prove or disprove climate trends.
The Bottom Line That Often Gets Lost
Large swings in weather day-to-day, month-to month, and even year-to-year do not necessarily imply large, rapid changes in climate. Weather, over time, will become part of the 30-year normal. This fundamental truth gets buried under the constant stream of weather events that capture headlines and social media attention.
Understanding this distinction isn’t just academic – it affects how we prepare for the future, fund research, and make policy decisions. When people confuse weather with climate trends, they might dismiss important long-term changes because they remember a particularly cold winter, or they might panic about climate change because of one extreme weather event. The reality is more nuanced, and the science is more robust than either reaction suggests.
