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Trick-or-treaters rarely check a climate table before picking a costume. Still, the long record for October 31 shows that some cities almost never get a soggy Halloween, while others gamble every year.
The records come from National Weather Service offices, NOAA climate normals and local weather histories. They point to a fairly clear pattern, and a few surprises along the way.
Dry Is Not the Same as Mild
A city can be bone dry on Halloween and still be uncomfortable for a costume parade. Dryness is about how often rain or snow shows up on the date. Mildness is about temperature, and people define it differently.
Both measures matter for a night spent outdoors. This article treats a city as a good Halloween bet if it combines a very low chance of precipitation with temperatures that don’t turn trick-or-treating into an endurance test.
Phoenix and Its Rare Rainy Halloweens
Since records began in 1895, measurable rain has fallen on Halloween in Phoenix only nine times. The most recent was in 1987, when 0.13 inches fell.
That is a long dry streak by any standard. The city’s long-term odds heavily favor clear skies, and Halloween in the Phoenix area is typically sunshine and warmth. Whether the warmth counts as mild depends on how much you like a late October evening that still feels like September.
Las Vegas and a Six Percent Chance
Las Vegas has one of the cleanest Halloween records among large cities. For 1991 to 2020, the average October 31 high is 74.3 degrees and the average low is 52.7, with a six percent chance of precipitation and no chance of snow.
The wettest October 31 in the city’s history was 0.25 inches, back in 1987. Even the extremes are modest. The record high is 86 degrees from 1988, and the record low is 27 degrees from 1935.
Why the Desert Southwest Dominates
Geography does most of the work here. The Sonoran and Mojave deserts sit between the Pacific storm track and the Rocky Mountains. Rain tends to be scarce and arrives in short bursts instead of steady autumn drizzle.
The annual numbers back this up. Las Vegas and Phoenix normally get less than an inch of rain in every month. Las Vegas averages 339 dry days a year, Phoenix 332 and Los Angeles 331.
Southern California’s Quiet October Nights
Los Angeles shows up near the top of dry day counts, so a rainy Halloween there is an unusual event. San Diego is also dry by rainfall totals. One ranking describes its coast as mild and pleasant, yet genuinely arid.
Los Angeles averages 14.3 inches of precipitation a year, which is more than Las Vegas or Phoenix but still low for a major city. The coast also avoids the extreme highs of the interior deserts. That combination of low rain odds and moderate temperatures is why coastal Southern California is a natural candidate for the mildest Halloween.
When Warm Becomes Too Warm
Not every ranking rewards the desert. In a 2026 WalletHub comparison of 100 cities, Las Vegas ranked 93rd and Phoenix 100th on Halloween weather, while Los Angeles ranked 57th. The same list placed New Orleans at 34th.
That tells you the desert’s dryness is not in question, but its heat can count against it. If you picture a crisp jacket evening, the Southwest may feel off. If you want guaranteed dry pavement, it’s hard to beat.
Cool, Typical Halloweens in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
New York City offers a more traditional version of the holiday. Its average Oct. 31 high is around 60 degrees and the low is around 40. In over 150 years of record keeping, no measurable snow has ever been observed on Halloween there.
Rain is more of a risk, though. A local report noted that three of the four Halloweens before 2023 saw at least some rain. Near Washington, Dulles Airport has just an 18 percent chance of precipitation on the date. That’s a better record than most of the East.
Cities Where Halloween Can Turn Wet or Wintry
Farther north and in the Great Lakes region, the date is less predictable. Erie has a 48 percent chance of precipitation on Halloween. Caribou and Rochester carry the highest odds of measurable snow, 6 percent, and Caribou recorded 7.6 inches on its snowiest Halloween.
Madison, Wisconsin, sits in between. The average high there on Oct. 31 is 52 and the low is 34. Nearly two thirds of the past 30 Halloweens were completely dry.
