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The COP31 climate talks opened on November 9 in Antalya, Türkiye, and the science arrived with them. Türkiye is hosting the talks from November 9 to 20 in the Mediterranean resort city. On the first day, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a stark update on the state of the climate.
The picture is complicated, so it’s worth being precise about what the evidence says. Several of the most striking claims concern what may happen in the next few months rather than what has already been measured. This article separates the two.
A Summit Opening Under a Hot Sky
World leaders, delegates and activists kicked off the talks after a year in which climate change has brought rising temperatures and deadly European heat waves, and played a role in disasters such as the floods in Nepal. That is the backdrop for negotiators who have to turn earlier promises into action.
The scale is large. Nearly 200 countries and more than 90,000 participants have registered, according to one report on the opening. Australia is presiding over the negotiations even though Türkiye hosts the event. That arrangement came out of a compromise in late 2025.
What the WMO Numbers Actually Show
The WMO’s headline finding is about consistency. The past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record, with the past four years being the top four. From January to September 2026, the global average temperature was about 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial average.
Not every headline matches. A UN report says this year is on track to be one of the four hottest on record, and one outlet says 2026 may become the hottest ever. The WMO itself says only that temperatures are likely to rise further for 2026 as a whole, given the strong El Niño. Separately, Copernicus said 2026 is virtually certain to be the second year above the 1.5-degree limit, behind only 2024. So the “hottest year” claim is possible but not yet settled.
El Niño Is the Wild Card
The WMO calls the current El Niño exceptional. It has intensified since August and is expected to reach record strength by December. The WMO declares an El Niño when Pacific sea surface temperatures run 0.5°C above average, and it forecasts that this event may reach nearly four times that level between November 2026 and January 2027.
One caution is that the WMO doesn’t use the informal term “super El Niño.” It says the term isn’t part of standardized operational classifications. The practical effects are clearer. El Niño typically adds around 0.1 °C to 0.2 °C to annual global mean temperatures.
Why 2027 May Matter More Than 2026
El Niño’s effect on global temperature lags behind the event. The WMO says it is likely to have its greatest impact the year after it develops. That timing helps explain the agency’s warning about next year.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo drew the comparison with 2024 directly. She said 2024 was the warmest year on record for this reason, and that the world should prepare for another record-breaking year in 2027. This is a forecast, not a measurement, and its outcome will only be known once the data are in. Still, the reasoning rests on how past El Niño events have behaved.
Oceans and Sea Level Keep Climbing
Air temperature is only one part of the story. The WMO update lists sea level and ocean heat among the indicators at record high levels. Oceans store most of the excess heat from greenhouse gases, so these measures change slowly and rarely reverse.
That matters for low-lying and island nations. Australia had lobbied to host COP31 as a “Pacific COP” because low-lying South Pacific nations are increasingly threatened by rising seas and climate-fuelled disasters. The compromise gave Australia a role in pre-summit talks with Pacific nations.
The Human Cost of Extreme Weather
Warming shows up as people exposed to dangerous conditions. According to coverage of the WMO report, about 146.5 million people in India were exposed to extreme heat in April alone. The WMO also says the current El Niño is expected to act as a risk multiplier for health.
The agency also expects wider effects from El Niño. It is expected to increase the risk of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall well into 2027. The WMO notes that its report includes data only up to September 2026 and so doesn’t reflect El Niño’s most recent impacts.
The Gap Between Promises and Warming
The long-term outlook is the hardest part of the diplomacy. A UN Environment Programme report published in October said the world is already set to overshoot 1.5C of warming above pre-industrial levels. Reports say the planet is on track for 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming, well above the threshold set in 2015.
Energy demand adds pressure. Negotiators must implement earlier commitments to move away from fossil fuels even as global energy demand rises to power artificial intelligence and economic growth. A single year of record heat doesn’t change the emissions trajectory, but it raises the political cost of delay.
What Negotiators Are Wrestling Over
Money is already a sticking point. Even as leaders gave speeches on ambition and implementation, negotiators were arguing behind the scenes over funds for adaptation and recovery from climate disasters, among other long-pending bottlenecks. Delegates face pressure to develop new pledges while implementing previous ones.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell offered a sober framing. “No single COP is a silver bullet that can stop climate change overnight,” he said. Outcomes from Antalya will only become clear when the talks conclude on November 20.
Conclusion
The evidence is consistent on the main point. The last several years are the warmest recorded, an unusually strong El Niño is building, and current policies point well above 1.5C. What remains uncertain is whether 2026 or 2027 will set the next annual record.
Antalya won’t change the physics, but its decisions on finance, adaptation and fossil fuels will shape how much worse the extremes become. The data are in, and the question now is what governments do with them.
